UK has far-reaching strategic objectives to expel Russian diplomats for espionage. It has been aggressive to Russia for fear of a huge fall in its geopolitical status.
Britain issued an ultimatum to the Russia after Skripal, the former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia were found poisoned and unconscious in Britain on 12 March. With no response from Russia, the Britain Prime Minister Theresa immediately announced that they will expel 23 Russian diplomats and command their departure in a week after report to Congress. Russia just indicates that they will take the same move as well.
Britain has become isolated and helpless ever since America and Korea agreed to negotiate, German and France gradually controlled the economic and immigration problems of the European Union, which gradually caused its conflict with Russia.
Before the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union, the former British Prime Minister Churchill had already began to instigate the American president Truman to start the cold war against the Soviet Union, and gave the famous “Iron Curtain Speech”. During the cold war, Britain and the United States led the whole war and NATO together as a firm ally, so as to say, Russia has always been a victim whenever Britain meets political crisis. Unfortunately, Putin is not as reckless as Khrushchev.
Recently, the European Union pays more attention to America’s strategic direction towards Asia due to the relationship mitigation between America and Korea. Since Britain didn’t get more benefits in the process of removing from the European Union, Europe left Britain a much-reduced powerful role. Additionally, the World Cup will be held in Russia in June, which indicates that it is imperative for France and Germany to strengthen their ties with Russia in the future. Now the vulnerable Theresa May is putting Britain in a more dangerous strategic stage. Britain’s relative position to the US is decreasing, and its position in the European Union will become dispensable.
British expert says the substance that poisoned Skripal is similar to the neurotoxic agents developed by the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. If Britain only points out that the Soviet Union developed the similar nerve gas and Russia has the habit of sanctioning the betrayer, it would not be very tenable to question Russia. The circumstance is quite different from the historical background when the former British Prime Minister Churchill took advantage of the US’s suspicion towards the Soviet Union to provoke the relationship between the two countries after the victory of World War II. At that time, the United States mainly wanted to sell its postwar expensive infrastructure, it poured massive surplus production, labor, technology to the Europe through “The Marshall Plan”, convinced that the original loan will be paid after the development of European countries, more importantly, the technology of America will be rooted in Europe. Besides, America also used the contradiction of the ideology of Soviet Russia, with the interference of Britain, the United States and the Soviet Union ended up to the cold war. The climax of the cold war didn’t come during the Stalin period, but happened when Khrushchev fully picked up the nerve line of American security in Cuba for his own political profit.
Now the successive British Prime Ministers are still maintaining the same pattern, trying to continue Churchill and Thatcher’s moves, but the problem is that the United States has no need to output their surplus products, it can achieve financial and technology global circulation through WTO, moreover, Russia haven’t challenged any American interest in the EU yet.
To a great extent, It can be said that the organizations or political figures in the CIS countries that against Russia(including some oligarchs) love to stay in Britain, mainly because Britain is an major site to collect the Russian information. When it comes to “fighting” against Russia, European countries do need the help from the United kingdom. Now the purpose of Britain’s reaction is to merely keep its reputation of having the ability to shelter the Russian rebel spies and form an oligarch heaven, considering that the political status may become even lower if it lost this reputation.
In fact, there is a common sense that the nerve gas which the Soviet Union developed actually widely exists in the CIS, and these chemical agents can be bought in the weapons black-market of CIS. What’s more, it is known to public that the gas which poisoned the spy exists in some countries of the CIS, not Russia.
So it will be a dangerous demonstration for Britain to question Russia as the manipulator behind the scene and start diplomatic sanctions to Russia if Britain did not get conclusive evidence, in another word, Britain makes a fuss over a trifle. From the view of the EU countries and the United States, its political purpose doesn’t seem to be necessary. Thus, the United States and European countries can only agree to follow Britain to punish several Russians. After all, Britain have no clear evidence of this case. Now the European Union and the United States play with the United Kingdom, which will hinder the recovery of the European Union and Russia’s economy , and also have no benefits for the US’s global strategy. After all, Trump has not fully implemented the economic sanctions against Russia, his diplomatic strategy is still in Asia, not in Europe.
Without clarifying the complexity of the case, Britain firmly believed that Russia should take responsibility only by the emotional speech from Congress. It is surely unfair. Britain should show more evidence to the world.
Wu Fei, senior researcher of Charhar Institute, professor of Ji Nan University (China)